Paul Meloan – Vested Interest

Certainly not where the market is going to go in 2014.  First, some numbers:

The S&P 500 (SPX) is an index of 500 of the largest, US-based, publicly traded companies.

It ended 2011 at 1258.

It ended 2012 at 1426.  That is an increase of 13% over the prior year.

It ended 2013 at 1848.  That is an increase of 30% over the prior year.

Yes, I know there is a dividend yield too, but we’re going to ignore it just for the sake of this discussion.

A 30% increase in the SPX is a damn fine year.  This was the first time that had happened since 1997.  The SPX has now returned at least 30% for the calendar year 19 times since 1926.  Of those, 11 have occurred since 1945.

Certainly, someone in a position to know saw this coming, right?  Someone said (before the fact) that 2013 was going to be a bust-out year for US stocks, so back up the truck and load it to the top, right?

Of course not.  Here’s one analyst over at the Vampire Squid who managed to miss both 2012 and 2013 in the same fearless, dumbass-wrong prediction.  What makes it even more breathtakingly bad is that he made the 2012 call with less than 3 months remaining in 2012!  It’s like him predicting a baseball team was going to blow a 5-run lead in the 8th inning.  Yeah, it happens, but that is probably not a good bet.

2012 Losers:

Morgan Stanley: 1167

Team Vampire: 1250

Your Friendly Neighborhood Swiss Bankers: 1350   (getting warmer)

2012 Winner:

Jamie Dimon Are a Girl’s Best Friend: 1430

Here is the full list of players, including those who elected not to predict (smart move, guys!).  A special warm and fuzzy to the guy from RBC who says they remain neutral on equities, whatever the hell that means.

2013 Losers:

All of them.  Every. Single. One.

Most Wrong: Wells Fargo at 1390

Least Wrong: Citi at 1615.

2013 Winners:

Every investor who simply held their portfolio and decided to ignore these clowns.

Here is the full list from this prognostication train wreck.

Happy 2014!

Paul Meloan is the co-founder and co-managing member of Aegis Wealth Management, LLC, in Bethesda, Maryland USA. Before Aegis Paul was a practicing attorney as well as working in the tax practice of Ernst & Young, LLP.

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